OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
____________________________________________________________________________________

Pete Buttigieg cleared the path for a much-anticipated 2028 presidential campaign this week after announcing that he will not run for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Although he had previously stated that he was “looking” at trying to unseat retiring Democrat Gary Peters in one of the most competitive seats in the 2026 cycle, the former Transportation Secretary stated that he had “decided against competing” to be either governor or senator.

“I care deeply about who Michigan will elect as Governor and send to the U.S. Senate next year, but I have decided against competing in either race. I remain enthusiastic about helping candidates who share our values – and who understand that in this moment, leadership means not only opposing today’s cruel chaos, but also presenting a vision of a better alternative,” he wrote on X.

“While my own plans don’t include running for office in 2026, I remain intensely focused on consolidating, communicating, and supporting a vision for this alternative. The decisions made by elected leaders matter entirely because of how they shape our everyday lives – and the choices made in these years will decide the American people’s access to freedom, security, democracy, and prosperity for the rest of our lifetimes,” he added.A source briefed Politico early on about his decision and told him that his supporters framed his decision as a way to position him for a future presidential run while avoiding more challenging-to-win campaigns in 2026 and 2028.“The hardest decision in politics is to pass on a race you have a very good chance to win. Pete was an A-list recruit and would have been a formidable candidate for the Senate had he chosen to run,” longtime Democratic operative David Axelrod told Politico.

If Buttigieg won the seat in 2026, however, it would “almost certainly” take him out of the conversation for 2028, according to Axelrod.

“This certainly keeps that option open,” Axelrod added.

In addition, Buttigieg ran in the crowded 2020 Democratic primary, which former President Joe Biden won.

As of right now, Buttigieg is only trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential contest. But Harris has been considering whether to enter a more pressing political campaign.

According to reports, the unsuccessful 2024 presidential candidate has been considering running for governor of California in 2026 in an attempt to unseat term-out Governor Gavin Newsom.

Politico previously reported, citing two people familiar with her plans, that she is expected to decide on her next course of action by the end of the summer.

In a pivotal swing state that favored President Trump in November, Buttigieg’s announcement has Democrats scrambling to try and fill the seat being vacated by Peters.

In 2022, Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, moved to Michigan, the home state of his husband Chasten.

Soon after his announcement, political analyst Mark Halperin suggested that Buttigieg’s status as a “short and gay” man may hurt his chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.

On “The Morning Meeting,” Halperin noted that taller candidates typically win presidential elections nowadays and that an “openly gay” man has never won the presidency.

“Gotta say it — he’s short and gay. So you can say winning the nomination, being short and gay, is a positive. And for some people, maybe not short, but gay is a positive,” Halperin said. “And I know for some people there is, but there is going to be a premium for the party in 2028 on winning, right? It’s just like ’92. There are going to be a lot of voters who are willing to swallow stuff in order to win.”

“I’ve looked at the list of people who’ve won the presidency. None of them were openly gay — three were gay, but none were openly gay. And so it’s just a risk,” he added. “And in almost every presidential race — not every one, but in almost every presidential race in the television era — the taller person has won. The Republican nominee in 2028 will be taller than Pete Buttigieg.”

Sean Spicer, the former press secretary for the White House in Trump’s first term, pointed out that winning the general election is not the same as winning the Democratic nomination.

Halperin concurred, adding that he was only talking about the nomination.

“I’m torn on whether or not, because he’s gay, it would be a liability,” former Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine chimed in. “I could see it being a liability with certain audiences. I think the question is, do you own it, or are you uncomfortable and hide from it?”

“But this is a time when electability is going to be a massive issue,” Halperin said.