Jasmine Crockett’s Senate Campaign in Shambles After Devastating New Poll

Democratic firebrand Jasmine Crockett received more bad news following the bombshell Supreme Court ruling that upheld Texas’ new congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Crockett pivoted from seeking a new House seat in a nearby Texas district to a fledgling run for the U.S. Senate. However, a damaging new poll appears to have thrown cold water on her Senate bid.

State Rep. James Talarico has emerged as the frontrunner in Texas’s Democratic Senate primary, holding a nine-point lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, 47 percent said they plan to back Talarico, compared with 38 percent for Crockett. Another 15 percent remain undecided with less than two months before the March primary.

The two Democrats are battling for the nomination to challenge Sen. John Cornyn, who faces his own tight contest on the Republican side.

Talarico, who has raised more than $13 million since launching his campaign in September, showed strong cross-demographic appeal — winning support from nearly six in ten white and Hispanic Democrats. Crockett, meanwhile, dominated among Black Democratic voters, capturing 80 percent in that demographic.

Men favored Talarico by 22 points, while women were evenly divided between the two candidates, according to Emerson Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.

A former middle school teacher and radical lawmaker, Talarico rose to national prominence in 2024 after joining other Texas Democrats in fleeing the state to block a Republican-backed redistricting bill. His campaign has emphasized education reform, housing affordability, and restoring local control to school districts.

Crockett, a first-term congresswoman known for her combative style on Capitol Hill, shook up the race with a late December entry that forced former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic Party’s 2024 Senate nominee, to drop his 2026 campaign and instead run again for the House.

Analysts say the race has become a referendum on tone and temperament within Texas’s Democratic Party — with Talarico pitching himself as a bridge-builder and Crockett appealing to the party’s progressive base.

On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to pose a serious threat to Sen. Cornyn, leading him 27 percent to 26 percent among likely GOP primary voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) trails at 16 percent, while 29 percent remain undecided, the poll found.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided,” Kimball said. “With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton now appears likely in May.”

In general election matchups, both Democrats remain competitive. Paxton tied with both Talarico and Crockett at 46 percent each, while Cornyn edged Talarico 47 to 44 percent and led Crockett 48 to 43 percent.

Despite the close numbers, national forecasters remain skeptical that Democrats can overcome Texas’s deep-red fundamentals. The Cook Political Report continues to rate the race as “Likely Republican,” just short of a solid GOP hold.

Still, Democrats see opportunity in the state’s shifting demographics and continued urban growth. Talarico’s campaign released a statement calling the results “proof that Texans are ready for a new generation of leadership focused on working families instead of Washington insiders.”

Nonetheless, Crockett insists that she has been wronged by the Supreme Court decision that may have ended her time in Congress.

“While today’s decision from the Supreme Court is disappointing, it’s not shocking coming from a MAGA-influenced court. Here’s the bottom line: Texans are now being told to vote under maps that a panel of three federal judges—right here in Texas—said were drawn to weaken the voices of Black, Latino, and minority communities,” she said. “Those findings still stand. The Supreme Court simply pressed pause, allowing these maps to be used for the 2026 election cycle while the case continues.”

“Let’s be clear: the Supreme Court did not say these maps are fair. They did not say these maps are constitutional. They did not undo what the lower court found,” she continued. “All they did was allow maps that the lower court flagged as discriminatory to stay in place for now. To every politician celebrating this decision, let me offer a word of caution: Don’t get too comfortable.”

However, it looks like James Talarico is all too comfortable in his senate bid against Crockett so far.