Newsom’s Polling Among Key Constituencies Lags Behind Vance: Report

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, often criticized by Republicans for his state’s high taxes and strict pandemic policies, has emerged as an early frontrunner for Democrats in the 2028 presidential race, according to recent polling.

A Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted Sept. 2 shows Newsom leading the Democratic field with 21% support among registered Democrats. But Vice President JD Vance, expected to be the Republican nominee, is already eyeing opportunities to exploit Newsom’s weak spots in national polling.

The survey found Vice President Kamala Harris close behind at 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%. With Newsom at the top of the early field, analysts say it is important for conservatives to begin assessing both his strengths and vulnerabilities ahead of 2028.

Although Newsom has maintained a lead in Democratic primary polling for several months, his national approval ratings remain weak. A Sept. 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters found him with a net approval rating of -5, with 38% approving and 43% disapproving.

The survey also highlighted Newsom’s struggles with key constituencies critical to winning swing states. His weakest numbers came from non-college voters, who disapproved of him by a 21-point margin, 48% to 27%.

That gap is wider than Vice President Kamala Harris’s 13-point loss among non-college voters in 2024, underscoring a long-standing Democratic concern over eroding support within this demographic in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Daily Torch reported, citing the data.

Swing voters could pose a significant challenge for the California governor. A recent survey shows him trailing by 12 points among this group, with 41% disapproving and 29% approving of his performance.

Independents and non-affiliated voters narrowly backed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024, 49% to 46%. Presently, a record 43% of Americans identify as independents, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans at 28% each. Analysts warn that Newsom’s lack of appeal among swing voters could seriously undermine his prospects in 2028 as more Americans move away from the two major parties.

Another constituency Newsom is struggling with is men, notably college-educated men, who voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump by a single percentage point in 2024, 49 percent to 48 percent according to National Election Pool data. College-educated men disapprove of Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent.

Another hurdle for Newsom is winning over highly active voters — those who participated in all four of the most recent major elections. While this group has leaned left in recent cycles, they remain unconvinced by the California Democrat. His approval rating among high-propensity voters is slightly underwater at 44%, compared to 46% who disapprove.

Newsom also faces skepticism among some black voters, particularly those who attend religious services regularly. The survey found that 16% of black Democrats who worship monthly or more view him unfavorably, a potential challenge in early primary states such as South Carolina, the data show.

“The next presidential election is just over three years away and a great deal can shift before then, but early polling hints at Newsom’s weak spots with key constituencies, particularly non-college voters and independents,” the outlet reported.

“If 2028 results in a standoff between Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance, there is also an opportunity for Vance to increase his margins with highly active voters and religious Black voters according to the survey. Newsom leads the Democratic primary for now, but he has serious deficits as a candidate beyond the liberal coastal states,” the Daily Torch concluded.

Newsom sparked controversy on Saturday after his team posted a cryptic message directed at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

Newsom’s press team issued a statement that many interpreted as a threat toward Noem.

The post read, “Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America.”

Several X users quickly compared the message to ominous comments made online before the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Also, acting US Attorney Bill Essayli in California referred the matter to the Secret Service.